Since the managed-cron redesign (#84339, v2026.8.13) the dashboard fire
webhook forwards fires to the gateway process and returns 503 when it is
unreachable so NAS/QStash retries. Correct for transient windows — but an
operator-STOPPED gateway can never be fixed by retrying: every fire on
every job burns the full scheduler retry budget, NAS converts each 503 to
a retryable 502, and the resulting storms page on-call for a non-incident
(OOF-266 and its five duplicate tickets; +93% relay callback failures as
the fleet adopted v2026.8.13).
Split the unreachable path by durable operator intent:
- desired_state == "stopped" (written only by the s6 lifecycle commands;
the same intent signal container-boot reconciliation trusts) -> drop
the fire with 200 + a structured log line, mirroring NAS's own
instance_stopped drop. Jobs are not lost: the Chronos provider
reconciles and re-arms every job on the next gateway start.
- Anything else (crash loop, scale-to-zero wake, restart, legacy state
file without desired_state) -> keep the retryable 503, now stamped
with Retry-After: 60 so a scheduler that honors it spaces retries
past the wake/restart window instead of exhausting them inside it.
The gateway's own pass-through 503s (draining) get the same hint.
The intent check fails open (any parse/resolution error -> retryable
path) and is only consulted when the gateway is actually unreachable, so
a stale state file can never shadow a live gateway.
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