No stable release has shipped signed packages yet. Every final tag so far
skipped bundles or predates the claim pipeline. So
releases/stable/release-candidates.json does not exist, and the three
"Pin actual OLD and NEW signed packages" jobs refused with "No published
stable package baseline".
transitions now treats a 404 as a first release only when no final stable
tag records a candidate manifest and no baseline-manifest input was given.
It still validates the receipt, emits empty matrices and baseline=none.
The packaged upgrade arms skip on that output. The gate accepts their skip
only when their own planner succeeded with baseline=none, so a missing
baseline after a real bundle release still blocks.
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