diff --git a/.github/workflows/stable-release.yml b/.github/workflows/stable-release.yml
index e8cbcd24b4..b7e6a8ac8c 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/stable-release.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/stable-release.yml
@@ -279,6 +279,7 @@ jobs:
     outputs:
       windows: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.windows }}
       macos: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.macos }}
+      baseline: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.baseline }}
     steps:
       - uses: actions/checkout@f548e57e544e1ff5a4c46bf1e1b8685f8e4a348a # v7.0.1
         with:
@@ -313,6 +314,7 @@ jobs:
     outputs:
       windows: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.windows }}
       macos: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.macos }}
+      baseline: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.baseline }}
     steps:
       - uses: actions/checkout@f548e57e544e1ff5a4c46bf1e1b8685f8e4a348a # v7.0.1
         with:
@@ -347,6 +349,7 @@ jobs:
     outputs:
       windows: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.windows }}
       macos: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.macos }}
+      baseline: ${{ steps.plan.outputs.baseline }}
     steps:
       - uses: actions/checkout@f548e57e544e1ff5a4c46bf1e1b8685f8e4a348a # v7.0.1
         with:
@@ -412,6 +415,8 @@ jobs:
   windows-packaged:
     name: Windows signed-package acceptance
     needs: transitions-win32
+    # Without a published stable baseline there is no OLD package to upgrade from.
+    if: needs.transitions-win32.outputs.baseline != 'none'
     strategy:
       fail-fast: false
       matrix: ${{ fromJSON(needs.transitions-win32.outputs.windows) }}
@@ -428,6 +433,8 @@ jobs:
   macos-packaged-arm64:
     name: macOS arm64 signed-package acceptance
     needs: transitions-darwin-arm64
+    # Without a published stable baseline there is no OLD package to upgrade from.
+    if: needs.transitions-darwin-arm64.outputs.baseline != 'none'
     strategy:
       fail-fast: false
       matrix: ${{ fromJSON(needs.transitions-darwin-arm64.outputs.macos) }}
@@ -444,6 +451,8 @@ jobs:
   macos-packaged-x64:
     name: macOS x64 signed-package acceptance
     needs: transitions-darwin-x64
+    # Without a published stable baseline there is no OLD package to upgrade from.
+    if: needs.transitions-darwin-x64.outputs.baseline != 'none'
     strategy:
       fail-fast: false
       matrix: ${{ fromJSON(needs.transitions-darwin-x64.outputs.macos) }}
diff --git a/scripts/releases/stable.py b/scripts/releases/stable.py
index 9df21127c0..b5c34687eb 100644
--- a/scripts/releases/stable.py
+++ b/scripts/releases/stable.py
@@ -83,6 +83,12 @@ SKIPPED_BY = {
 }
 
 
+# Each signed-package upgrade arm and the transitions job that plans it.
+PACKAGED_BY = {"macos-packaged-arm64": "transitions-darwin-arm64",
+               "macos-packaged-x64": "transitions-darwin-x64",
+               "windows-packaged": "transitions-win32"}
+
+
 def gate_expectations(required: list[str], *, skip_bundles: bool, skip_tests: bool) -> dict:
     """Each gated job's required result under the claim's flags."""
     active = {flag for flag, on in (("skipBundles", skip_bundles), ("skipTests", skip_tests)) if on}
@@ -95,6 +101,13 @@ def require_gate(needs: dict, required: list[str], *, skip_bundles: bool, skip_t
     if not required or len(set(required)) != len(required):
         raise ValueError("Invalid required-job list")
     expected = gate_expectations(required, skip_bundles=skip_bundles, skip_tests=skip_tests)
+    for packaged, planner in PACKAGED_BY.items():
+        # Without a published baseline there is no OLD package, so the planner
+        # skips the upgrade arm. Only that planner's own successful output can excuse it.
+        planned = needs.get(planner, {})
+        if (expected.get(packaged) == "success" and planned.get("result") == "success"
+                and (planned.get("outputs") or {}).get("baseline") == "none"):
+            expected[packaged] = "skipped"
     failures = [f"{name}={needs.get(name, {}).get('result', 'missing')} (expected {want})"
                 for name, want in expected.items() if needs.get(name, {}).get("result") != want]
     if failures:
@@ -640,14 +653,21 @@ def _stage_transition(env: dict, archive: str, base: str, row: dict) -> dict:
             "manifest_sha256": hashlib.sha256(file.read_bytes()).hexdigest()}
 
 
-def _published_baseline(env: dict, base: str) -> dict:
+def _published_baseline(env: dict, base: str) -> dict | None:
+    """The previous stable package manifest, or None when no stable release shipped one.
+
+    A release that skipped bundles never writes the pointer, so its absence
+    only means there is no OLD package to upgrade from.
+    """
     try:
         previous = read_manifest(env.get("BASELINE_MANIFEST_URL") or f"{base}/releases/stable/release-candidates.json",
                                  expected_origin=base)
     except urllib.error.HTTPError as error:
-        if error.code == 404:
-            raise ValueError("No published stable package baseline. Supply baseline-manifest for an actual previous stable release; acceptance cannot be skipped.") from error
-        raise
+        if error.code != 404:
+            raise
+        if env.get("BASELINE_MANIFEST_URL"):
+            raise ValueError("The supplied baseline-manifest does not exist") from error
+        return None
     published = json.loads(output(["gh", "release", "view", previous["tag"], "--repo", env["GITHUB_REPOSITORY"], "--json", "tagName,isDraft,isPrerelease"]))
     if published["tagName"] != previous["tag"] or published["isDraft"] or published["isPrerelease"]:
         raise ValueError("Upgrade baseline must be a published stable release")
@@ -677,10 +697,17 @@ def transitions(env: dict) -> None:
     previous = _published_baseline(env, base)
     receipt_manifest = _receipt_from_env(env, receipt, "RECEIPT", base)
     matrices = {"windows": {"include": []}, "macos": {"include": []}}
+    if previous is None:
+        # Native smokes still gate this release. Its packages become the
+        # baseline that the next bundle release must upgrade from.
+        validate_receipt(receipt_manifest, receipt, receipt_manifest.get("tag"),
+                         receipt_manifest.get("commit"), base, archive=receipt_manifest.get("archive"))
+        emit({**matrices, "baseline": "none"}, env)
+        return
     for row in plan_receipt_transitions(previous, receipt_manifest, receipt, base):
         matrices[row["transition"]["platform"]]["include"].append(
             _stage_transition(env, archive, base, row))
-    emit(matrices, env)
+    emit({**matrices, "baseline": "published"}, env)
 
 
 # The candidate manifest is written after the smokes (decision 23): the smoke
diff --git a/tests/scripts/test_stable_release.py b/tests/scripts/test_stable_release.py
index 1060d7df1a..9a8083e8b9 100644
--- a/tests/scripts/test_stable_release.py
+++ b/tests/scripts/test_stable_release.py
@@ -937,6 +937,38 @@ def test_transitions_from_the_bundle_receipt_emit_two_windows_rows(tmp_path, r2_
     assert macos["include"] == []
 
 
+def test_missing_baseline_plans_no_upgrade_arm_but_a_missing_supplied_one_blocks(
+        tmp_path, r2_server, https_origin, monkeypatch):
+    from scripts.releases import stable
+
+    url, digest = _staged_receipt(tmp_path, r2_server, https_origin, monkeypatch, "darwin-arm64")
+    env = {**_transitions_env(tmp_path, https_origin.base, "darwin-arm64", url, digest),
+           "BASELINE_MANIFEST_URL": ""}
+    stable.main(["transitions"], env)
+    emitted = dict(line.split("=", 1)
+                   for line in (tmp_path / "output").read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines())
+    assert emitted["baseline"] == "none"
+    assert json.loads(emitted["macos"]) == json.loads(emitted["windows"]) == {"include": []}
+    env["BASELINE_MANIFEST_URL"] = f"{https_origin.base}/baseline.json"
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="supplied baseline-manifest does not exist"):
+        stable.main(["transitions"], env)
+
+
+def test_gate_excuses_an_upgrade_arm_only_for_its_planners_no_baseline_output():
+    from scripts.releases.stable import PACKAGED_BY, require_gate
+
+    required = [*PACKAGED_BY, *PACKAGED_BY.values()]
+    needs = {name: {"result": "skipped"} for name in PACKAGED_BY}
+    needs.update({name: {"result": "success", "outputs": {"baseline": "none"}}
+                  for name in PACKAGED_BY.values()})
+    require_gate(needs, required, skip_bundles=False, skip_tests=False)
+    for packaged, planner in PACKAGED_BY.items():
+        for planned in ({"result": "success", "outputs": {"baseline": "published"}},
+                        {"result": "success"}, {"result": "failure", "outputs": {"baseline": "none"}}):
+            with pytest.raises(ValueError, match=packaged):
+                require_gate({**needs, planner: planned}, required, skip_bundles=False, skip_tests=False)
+
+
 def test_candidate_manifest_needs_every_call_and_stages_the_archive_manifest(
         tmp_path, r2_server, https_origin, monkeypatch):
     from scripts.releases import stable
diff --git a/website/docs/developer-guide/stable-releases.md b/website/docs/developer-guide/stable-releases.md
index 5fde40d8c6..a2b91581fb 100644
--- a/website/docs/developer-guide/stable-releases.md
+++ b/website/docs/developer-guide/stable-releases.md
@@ -415,6 +415,9 @@ local helper suite. Never store the bootstrap output as a repo channel list.
 The last successful stable release that shipped bundles records
 `releases/stable/release-candidates.json` on the configured R2 public origin.
 A release that skipped bundles does not replace it.
+When no baseline exists, the release still runs every native smoke but skips
+the signed-package upgrade arms. A `baseline-manifest` input that does not
+exist is a blocker.
 It identifies actual Windows universal MSIX bundles, macOS ZIPs and package
 provenance. The next run combines those records with its candidate manifest
 and uses the existing native bundled-update drivers.