diff --git a/tests/install/e2e-assets/user-state-actions.sh b/tests/install/e2e-assets/user-state-actions.sh
index a423125385..3f64e49d6e 100644
--- a/tests/install/e2e-assets/user-state-actions.sh
+++ b/tests/install/e2e-assets/user-state-actions.sh
@@ -58,10 +58,16 @@ user_state_produce() {
     fail "the installed CLI has no one-shot chat flag; this leg cannot produce a session through the user path"
   fi
   after="$(_user_state_db_sessions)"
-  if [ "${before:-0}" -ge 0 ] && [ "${after:-0}" -gt "${before:-0}" ]; then
-    ok "a real turn created a session (state.db sessions $before -> $after)"
+  # A fresh install has NO state.db until the first turn, so the probe's -1
+  # ("no readable db yet") is the expected starting point, not a failure. Only
+  # growth matters: the turn must have created rows.
+  local before_n after_n
+  if [ "${before:-0}" -lt 0 ]; then before_n=0; else before_n="${before:-0}"; fi
+  if [ "${after:-0}" -lt 0 ]; then after_n=0; else after_n="${after:-0}"; fi
+  if [ "$after_n" -gt "$before_n" ]; then
+    ok "a real turn created a session (state.db sessions $before_n -> $after_n)"
   else
-    fail "the chat turn produced no session row (state.db sessions $before -> $after)"
+    fail "the chat turn produced no session row (state.db sessions $before_n -> $after_n)"
   fi
 
   # --- a pooled credential -------------------------------------------------
diff --git a/tests/install/windows-e2e.ps1 b/tests/install/windows-e2e.ps1
index a978a6f7f5..55e7126982 100644
--- a/tests/install/windows-e2e.ps1
+++ b/tests/install/windows-e2e.ps1
@@ -977,7 +977,11 @@ function Invoke-UserStateActions {
         Write-LogGroup 'first real chat turn' $log
         if ($chatExit -ne 0) { throw "the first chat turn failed (exit $chatExit); see $log" }
         $after = Get-UserStateSessionCount
-        if (-not ($before -ge 0 -and $after -gt $before)) {
+        # A fresh install has no state.db until the first turn: -1 means "no
+        # readable db yet", the expected starting point, not a failure.
+        if ($before -lt 0) { $before = 0 }
+        if ($after -lt 0) { $after = 0 }
+        if (-not ($after -gt $before)) {
             throw "the chat turn produced no session row (state.db sessions $before -> $after)"
         }
         Write-Host "  a real turn created a session (state.db sessions $before -> $after)"